Preparing your eCommerce store for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 🛍️ requires more than a basic inventory plan. When planning for the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday, your top priority will be forecasting future demand and stocking up to avoid issues like stockout. 📦 To achieve this, you should understand and predict seasonal demand fluctuations to effectively manage the year's busiest shopping season. That’s where seasonal demand forecasting comes into play and helps you make more accurate inventory plans. 📊 How? In this blog, we’ll explain in detail. Let’s start by understanding seasonal forecasting.

What is Seasonal Demand Forecasting?

Seasonal demand refers to shifts in consumer interest in products that sell more during specific times of the year, like BFCM. Factors like upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday seasons and special days like Valentine's or holidays🎄 drive these changes. Businesses must understand these fluctuations to effectively manage inventory and meet customer demand during peak seasons.

Seasonal demand forecasting helps predict these shifts, allowing eCommerce businesses to plan their inventory and sales strategies accordingly. How? Seasonal demand forecasting allows you to analyze the inventory and sales data from a specific period last year and create a more realistic plan for the upcoming season.

Why is Leveraging Seasonal Inventory Forecasting for BFCM a Must?

Inventory forecasting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday helps you create a forward-focused plan that aligns with your goals. Using a solution that accounts for seasonality, like Fabrikatör, is crucial because relying only on annual data isn’t effective when planning for BFCM. It’s like trying to plan your Christmas 🎁 inventory using year-round sales data for holiday decorations—unfocused and inefficient.

With an advanced tool like Fabrikatör, you can accurately analyze the BFCM 2023 period, set growth targets for the upcoming season, and build a realistic inventory plan based on actual demand and your objectives. For instance, if you're stocking up for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2024, you might know which products are popular but not exactly how much you'll need. 📦 By examining last year’s BFCM data, you can better understand changes in demand and set a more accurate growth rate for BFCM 2024. This way, you experience fewer stock issues and maximize your eCommerce store’s profits. 💸

📘 Looking for a guide to refine your inventory planning for BFCM? The Inventory Planning Playbook offers a step-by-step guide to effectively manage your inventory before, during, and after Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Access here!

Key Factors to Consider in Seasonal Inventory Forecasting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday

To make accurate forecasting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday depends on understanding several factors that may influence inventory management. Considering the accuracy of historical inventory data, market trends, external factors, and promotions are elements shaping your inventory strategy and ensuring you're prepared effectively for the seasonal rush.

📊 Historical Inventory and Sales Data

As Clive Humby once said:

‘’Data is the new oil. It’s valuable, but if unrefined, it cannot really be used. It has to be processed and analyzed to have value.’’

That’s why you must process your past data comprehensively before the Black Friday and Cyber Monday periods begin. Analyzing historical inventory and sales data allows you to accurately identify trends, forecast seasonal demand, and make informed decisions to optimize stock levels. Besides, evaluating past data will help you to understand how demand has changed through the highest season last year so that you can set a more realistic growth rate for the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday seasons.

🕵️‍♂️ Inventory Visibility

Inventory visibility is crucial for making accurate forecasts. It provides eCommerce stores with the most up-to-date information, essential for analyzing and responding to sudden seasonal demand shifts during BFCM. Moreover, the accuracy of your past data for seasonal forecasting depends on real-time inventory data being correctly recorded. If you’re using a solution like Excel, you might work with outdated data, leading to inaccurate forecasts and inventory plans that don’t align with actual demand.

📈 Market Trends and Consumer Behavior

New product releases and competition can impact your inventory forecasting and change the popularity of your products. Keeping track of the trends in eCommerce helps you adjust your inventory to align with consumer interests and competitive pressures.

🌐 External Factors

You should also be careful about external factors such as economic conditions and social media trends influencing eCommerce demand during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. These elements can significantly impact customer buying patterns and should be considered when forecasting seasonal demand.

🛍️ Promotions and Discounts

Don’t forget to factor in your planned promotions and discounts when forecasting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. These can impact your inventory needs and forecasting accuracy. For instance, if you offer a 20% discount on popular smartwatches, you might see a big spike in sales. Understanding this helps you adjust your inventory so you can eliminate out-of-stock issues.

📌 Are you running a small Shopify business? Read Essential BFCM Inventory Planning Tips for Small Shopify Stores.

Is It Possible to Use Excel for Seasonal Demand Forecasting During BFCM?

Yes, but not with complete efficiency. 😔

Excel can be used for seasonal demand forecasting during BFCM, but it’s not the most efficient or accurate tool. While Excel has basic forecasting functions, it struggles to manage large datasets, handle complex models, and process real-time data updates—critical things during the fast-paced BFCM period. Plus, it lacks the advanced statistical algorithms and automation features available in advanced inventory management solutions like Fabrikatör, limiting its ability to forecast demand accurately.

For BFCM, Excel is not ideal for demand forecasting or inventory management, especially if you’re running a growing eCommerce store with many products.

📌 Learn more now: Why Isn’t Excel the Best Solution for BFCM Inventory Planning?

So, how can your eCommerce store ensure the most accurate and comprehensive seasonal demand forecasting during BFCM? 🤔 By using an inventory management solution that excels at demand forecasting!

How Fabrikatör Can Help You with Seasonal Inventory Forecasting During BFCM

When it comes to making accurate seasonal inventory plans, Fabrikatör combines powerful historical analysis, planning, and growth into one streamlined process.

With Fabrikatör’s inventory forecasting, you can:

👉 Make more realistic plans with Fabrikatör’s advanced demand planning, avoid last-minute POs and stock issues during BFCM,

👉 Make informed purchasing decisions based on accurate inventory data,

👉 Reduce the possibility of out-of-stock and overstock,

👉 Plan reorders at a perfect time with ease,

👉 Make more profits through the highest season of the year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Fabrikatör has many more features to help cater to your Black Friday and Cyber Monday needs. 🔄 You can keep the stock levels of your Shopify store at optimal levels with the automated stock replenishment feature of Fabrikatör. 📦  You can accept backorders and preorders to ensure client satisfaction and increased sales throughout the BFCM season and choose the most cost-efficient purchasing routes. 🚚 Plus, Fabrikatör always supports your operations with valuable integrations. Do you want to learn more about Fabrikatör? Get a demo and see it in action in only 30 minutes.

📌  Looking for a template to make sure your marketing, warehouse, and finance teams work together seamlessly before, during, and after Black Friday and Cyber Monday? Check out the Operational Checklist for BFCM 2024.